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Taking into account the chaotic nature of weather and variable fluctuations that influence climate, such as wind strength or melting ice sheets, Hasselmann created a stochastic model for predicting climate variations. Using this model, Manabe was able to show that carbon dioxide is responsible for an increase in the Earth’s temperature, not changes in solar radiation.Ībout 10 years later, Hasselmann also developed a critical model, which links weather and climate, showing that climate changes, unlike weather, can be reliably predicted. Manabe’s models were the first to explore the relationship between radiation and the vertical transport of air masses due to convection, while also incorporating the heat contributed by the water cycle. His research built on the work of fellow Nobel Laureate Svante Arrhenius, who studied the greenhouse gas effect 70 years earlier with a focus on radiation balance. He also demonstrated the relationship between increased atmospheric carbon dioxide and increased temperatures on the Earth’s surface. In the 1960s, Manabe led the development of climate models that laid the foundation for today’s models. Manabe and Hasselmann share half of the award for separate but complementary research that provides a solid, physics-based understanding of the Earth’s climate, a complex system of vital importance to humankind. "The Physical Review journals are among the most-trusted in physics, and their consistent citations by the Nobel Committee demonstrate the important role they play in advancing scientific discovery and research dissemination,” said Jeff Lewandowski, APS Director of Publishing. This marks the 11th consecutive year that a PRL article co-authored by one of the recipients has been cited in the Scientific Background on the Physics or Chemistry award. The Nobel Committee cited 17 papers in journals published by APS in their announcement, including six authored by Parisi: five in Physical Review Letters, and one in Reviews of Modern Physics. One half of the Nobel Prize in Physics is awarded jointly to Manabe, a Japanese American climatologist, and Hasselmann, a German oceanographer, “for the physical modelling of Earth’s climate, quantifying variability and reliably predicting global warming.” The other half is awarded to Parisi, an Italian theoretical physicist, “for the discovery of the interplay of disorder and fluctuations in physical systems from atomic to planetary scales.” Together, their work uses simple theories to explain how random, disordered, and complex phenomena arise and change over time. The recipients are: Syukuro Manabe (Princeton University), Klaus Hasselmann (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology), and Giorgio Parisi (Sapienza University of Rome).
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The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has announced the recipients of the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics, which has been awarded for groundbreaking models of the hidden rules that govern complex systems, including predictons of human impact on Earth’s climate.